Viewing archive of Friday, 10 October 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8094 (N23W24) EMERGED IN THE EXTENDED PLAGE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. REGIONS 8092 (N24E13) AND 8093 (N31E27) WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH PERSISTENT SUBSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF PROLONGED PERIODS OF SOUTHWARD IMF. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX MEASURED AT GOES EXCEEDED THE HIGH LEVEL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ON 07 OCTOBER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THIS DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 11 OCT to 13 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 OCT 084
  Predicted   11 OCT-13 OCT  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        10 OCT 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 OCT  019/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 OCT  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 OCT-13 OCT  025/025-015/018-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 OCT to 13 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active60%40%30%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active65%50%40%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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