Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8092 (N25E28) PRODUCED THE DAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A B9/0F WITH TYPE II SWEEP AT 1202Z. THE REGION IS STILL A SIMPLE BIPOLE WITH JUST 4 SUNSPOTS. NEW REGION 8093 (N32E41) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES, AS SUBSTORMS CONTINUED. MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WERE SEEN DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBSTORM EFFECTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION REPORTED ON OCTOBER 07 MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE FIELD IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY BEYOND THE ACTIVE LEVEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 OCT to 12 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 OCT 084
  Predicted   10 OCT-12 OCT  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        09 OCT 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 OCT  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 OCT  017/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 OCT-12 OCT  015/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 OCT to 12 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%50%50%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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