Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. REGION 8091 (N23E21)
PRODUCED A B3.9/SF AT 05/1757Z. A SPACE-BORNE INSTRUMENT DETECTED A
CORONAL MASS EJECTION IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE SOLAR DISK NEAR
REGION 8090 (S28E03) COINCIDENT WITH THE FLARE IN REGION 8091.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOPHYSICAL FIELD IS EXPECTED
TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR NEXT 12-18 HOURS BECOMING
UNSETTLED-ACTIVE THEREAFTER DUE TO FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 06 OCT to 08 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 OCT 084 Predicted 06 OCT-08 OCT 082/082/084 90 Day Mean 05 OCT 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 OCT 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT 002/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT 020/020-020/015-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 OCT to 08 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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