Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8088 (S28W02) PRODUCED A
C7/1N FLARE AT 25/1149Z WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS. THE GROWTH IN THIS
REGION IS ABATING WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT INCREASE OBSERVED DURING
THE PERIOD. MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES EXIST IN THE LEADER AND
TRAILER OF THIS REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
PRIMARILY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8088 IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET UNTIL LATE ON 26 SEP WHEN A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.
ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON 27-28 SEP
IN RESPONSE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OBSERVED ON 23-24 SEP.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT
TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 26 SEP to 28 SEP
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 SEP 089 Predicted 26 SEP-28 SEP 089/088/089 90 Day Mean 25 SEP 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 SEP 005/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 SEP 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 SEP-28 SEP 018/018-040/040-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 SEP to 28 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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