Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 September 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A B9.5/SF FROM REGION 8088 (S28E25). THE GROWTH RATE IN THIS REGION SLOWED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MINOR MAGNETIC FIELD MIXING BECAME VISIBLE IN THE TRAILER OF THIS REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES EXPECTED FROM REGION 8088. THIS REGION HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 24 SEP to 26 SEP
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 SEP 092
  Predicted    24 SEP-26 SEP  093/094/094
  90 Day Mean        23 SEP 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 SEP  010/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 SEP  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 SEP-26 SEP  008/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 SEP to 26 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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