Viewing archive of Monday, 22 September 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION 8088 (S28E39) EMERGED AT A RAPID PACE AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C5/SF EVENT AT 22/1817Z. THIS REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX AT THIS TIME. REGION 8087 (S22E58) PRODUCED TWO SMALL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW WITH REGION 8088 BEING THE PRIMARY C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCER. SHOULD GROWTH HERE CONTINUE AT THE CURRENT PACE, SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT ACTIVE LEVELS. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATED A MODERATE DENSITY INCREASE (TO 40 P/CC) DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSTULATED THAT THE EARTH RECEIVED AN OBLIQUE STRIKE FROM A CME OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMB ON 17 SEP. AFTER 22/0600Z THE FIELD RAPIDLY REACHED QUIET LEVELS AND CONTINUED SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING 24-25 SEP.
III. Event Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
Class M 20%30%35%
Class X 01%01%05%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 SEP 089
  Predicted    23 SEP-25 SEP 091/093/095
  90 Day Mean        22 SEP 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP  012/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP  011/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP  005/005-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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