Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 September 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. AN UNCORRELATED C2 X-RAY FLARE WAS DETECTED AT 21/0417Z. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8087 (S22E72) AND REGION 8088 (S28E53). REGION 8086 (N26W54) HAS GROWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS NOW A CAO SPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE THIRD DAY DUE TO RECURRENT ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 22 SEP to 24 SEP
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 SEP 085
  Predicted    22 SEP-24 SEP  084/086/088
  90 Day Mean        21 SEP 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 SEP  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 SEP  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 SEP-24 SEP  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 SEP to 24 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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