Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8084 (N22W88), NOW DECAYED INTO A DRO GROUP OF 6 SPOTS AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB, PRODUCED AN M1.7/SN FLARE AT 17/1143Z AND AN M1/SF FLARE AT 17/1803Z. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A C3/SF FLARE AT 16/2222Z. REGION 8085 (S25W72) MANAGED TO PRODUCE A C1/SF FLARE AS IT NEARED THE WEST LIMB. THIS REGION IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS AN HAX SPOT GROUP. REGION 8086 (N27E00) HAS ELONGATED BUT DECAYED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WAS RELATIVELY QUIET. TWO UNCORRELATED C1 FLARES WERE DETECTED AS WELL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGION 8084 AND 8086 STILL HAVE A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS FLARING AND A SMALL CHANCE OF AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. REGION 8085 HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS FLARING.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 18 SEP to 20 SEP
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 SEP 093
  Predicted   18 SEP-20 SEP  090/086/082
  90 Day Mean        17 SEP 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 SEP  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 SEP  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 SEP-20 SEP  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 SEP to 20 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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