Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C2 X-RAY
EVENT, MOST LIKLEY FROM REGION 8086 (N27E50), OCCURRED DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS REGION, A 5-SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP, ALSO PRODUCED
FOUR SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8084 (N22W39) HAS LOST SOME
OF IT'S SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINS STABLE IN AREA AS A
16-SPOT 'EAO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP. THE ONLY ACTIVITY OF NOTE FROM
REGION 8084 THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN A COUPLE OF SUBFLARES. REGION 8085
(S26W12) CONTINUES TO BE STABLE AND QUIET AS AN 18-SPOT 'FKI' BETA
GROUP. REGION 8083 (S28W73) HAS DECAYED INTO A 7-SPOT 'DAO' BETA
GROUP AS IT PREPARES TO ROTATE OFF THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW, WITH ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS LIKLEY. IN ADDITION THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8084
OR 8085 STILL EXISTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY
HIGH TO VERY HIGH, CROSSING OVER INTO THE VERY HIGH RANGE AT
APPROXIMATELY 13/1745Z, AND CONTINUING AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOSTLY
UNSETTLED ON DAY TWO WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS, AND BACK DOWN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 14 SEP to 16 SEP
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 SEP 108 Predicted 14 SEP-16 SEP 108/106/106 90 Day Mean 13 SEP 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 SEP 013/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP 010/010-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 SEP to 16 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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