Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 September 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8085 (S25E40) CONTINUED TO GROW AND PRODUCED SEVERAL FLARES, INCLUDING A C9/1N AT 09/0953Z. REGION 8083 (S28W22) HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT IN SUNSPOT AREA. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUBFLARES AS WELL BUT NOTHING LARGER THAN B-CLASS IN X-RAYS. REGION 8084 (N22E13) HAS DOUBLED IN SUNSPOT AREA SINCE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE RATE OF GROWTH SEEMS TO HAVE DECLINED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN ANY OF REGIONS 8083, 8084, AND 8085. THESE REGIONS APPEAR CAPABLE OF LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED CONDITIONS OCCURRED DURING THE 09/0600-1200Z PERIODS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM NORMAL TO HIGH, CROSSING THE HIGH THRESHOLD AT 09/1848Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 10 SEP to 12 SEP
Class M 25%20%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 SEP 116
  Predicted    10 SEP-12 SEP  120/120/118
  90 Day Mean        09 SEP 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 SEP  012/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 SEP  016/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 SEP-12 SEP  015/015-015/012-015/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 SEP to 12 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 20%20%20%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%

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