Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8085 (S25E40) CONTINUED
TO GROW AND PRODUCED SEVERAL FLARES, INCLUDING A C9/1N AT 09/0953Z.
REGION 8083 (S28W22) HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT IN SUNSPOT AREA. THIS
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUBFLARES AS WELL BUT NOTHING LARGER
THAN B-CLASS IN X-RAYS. REGION 8084 (N22E13) HAS DOUBLED IN SUNSPOT
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE RATE OF GROWTH SEEMS TO HAVE
DECLINED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN ANY OF REGIONS 8083,
8084, AND 8085. THESE REGIONS APPEAR CAPABLE OF LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE
MOST DISTURBED CONDITIONS OCCURRED DURING THE 09/0600-1200Z PERIODS.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM NORMAL TO HIGH,
CROSSING THE HIGH THRESHOLD AT 09/1848Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 10 SEP to 12 SEP
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 SEP 116 Predicted 10 SEP-12 SEP 120/120/118 90 Day Mean 09 SEP 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 SEP 012/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 SEP 016/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 SEP-12 SEP 015/015-015/012-015/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 SEP to 12 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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