Viewing archive of Monday, 8 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8083 (S28W09)
PRODUCED A M1/SF FLARE AT 08/1938Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DECAMETRIC RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED 220 SFU AT 2695 MHZ. TODAY'S
OBSERVED PENTICTON 10.7 CM SOLAR FLUX (119 SFU) IS MOST LIKELY
ENHANCED FROM THIS EVENT. REGION 8084 (N21E26) IS EXPERIENCING
EXTREMELY RAPID GROWTH, INCREASING SUNSPOT AREA SEVERAL FOLD AND
DEVELOPING PENUMBRA SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL FLARE-BRIGHT FLUCTUATIONS AND SUBFLARES AS IT EMERGES.
REGION 8085 (S25E53) CONTINUES TO GROW AS WELL AND IS PRESENTLY AN
F-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8083, 8084, AND 8085.
ANOTHER SMALL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THESE REGIONS
BUT IS NOT THOUGHT TO BE IMMINENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT MANY STATIONS FROM ABOUT 08/1400-1700Z. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS NORMAL TO MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 SEP 119 Predicted 09 SEP-11 SEP 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 08 SEP 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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