Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE DUE TO AN IMPULSIVE
M1/1N FLARE FROM REGION 8076 (N27W41) AT 02/1230Z. MINOR CENTIMETER
RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. REGION 8076 WAS GENERALLY
STABLE. MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES CONTINUED IN SEVERAL AREAS OF THIS
REGION ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF HIGH MAGNETIC GRADIENTS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8076 MAINTAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. REPORTS WERE
RECEIVED OF A CORONAL MORETON WAVE AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN M1/OF EVENT FROM REGION 8076 AT 29/2332Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THE CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MAGNETOSPHERE
IN A SIGNIFICANT MANNER.
III. Event Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 SEP 092 Predicted 03 SEP-05 SEP 092/092/089 90 Day Mean 02 SEP 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 SEP 006/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 SEP 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 SEP-05 SEP 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 SEP to 05 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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