Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 August 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Aug 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 AUG 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8076 (N30E51), STILL GROWING, PRODUCTED TWO C4/SF FLARES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8077 (S22E45), STABILIZED AND HAS BEEN QUIET. THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK WAS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. REGION 8076 HAS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYS TWO AND THREE MAY SHOW ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LATITUDES, AS A WEAK POLAR CORONAL HOLE EXTENSION MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Event Probabilities 27 AUG to 29 AUG
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 AUG 084
  Predicted    27 AUG-29 AUG  086/086/086
  90 Day Mean        26 AUG 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 AUG  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 AUG  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 AUG-29 AUG  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 AUG to 29 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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