Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 August 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 AUG 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8071 (N26W22) PRODUCED A
C1/SF FLARE AT 0132Z. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY FLARES SINCE THIS
EVENT AND THE REGIONS ON THE DISK APPEAR TO BE STABLE. STACKED
REGIONS 8073 (N14E36) AND 8074 (N26E38) CURRENTLY SHARE A NEUTRAL
LINE BETWEEN 8073'S TRAILER AND 8074'S LEADER, BUT THE FIELDS ARE
RATHER WEAK, AND THIS AREA DOES NOT CURRENTLY POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLARE THREAT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITALLY UNSETTLED FIELD BECAME INCREASINGLY
DISTURBED BETWEEN 0400-0900Z: MIDDLE LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY ACTIVE
AND HIGH LATITUDES SHOWED A RANGE OF LEVELS FROM ACTIVE TO MAJOR
STORM. SINCE 0900Z, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED PERIODS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND
UNSETTLED TO QUIET FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME ACTIVE LEVEL DISTURBANCES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 AUG to 17 AUG
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 AUG 080 Predicted 15 AUG-17 AUG 080/078/076 90 Day Mean 14 AUG 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 AUG 017/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG 010/010-010/005-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 AUG to 17 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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