Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 August 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Aug 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 AUG 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A FEW, LOW LEVEL B-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8070 (S19W54) SHOWED STEADY GROWTH AND
FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8071
(N26W06) ALSO SHOWED OCCASIONAL BRIGHTENINGS BUT WAS OTHERWISE VERY
STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8070 COULD PRODUCE A C-CLASS EVENT IF THE CURRENT
GROWTH TREND CONTINUES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. QUIET CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 0600-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 AUG 082 Predicted 14 AUG-16 AUG 084/085/085 90 Day Mean 13 AUG 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG 007/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG 005/010-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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