Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 July 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 JUL 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES OCCURRED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE SOHO/LASCO EXPERIMENT OBSERVED A LARGE (>200 DEGREES) CME EVENT AT ABOUT 30/0830Z. THIS EVENT WAS CORRELATED IN TIME WITH A PARTIAL FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE NEAR N45E21, A GOES X-RAY ENHANCEMENT BEGINNING AT 30/0839Z AND PEAKING AT 30/0907Z (A7 PEAK), AND ENHANCED CORONAL ARCADES BETWEEN REGIONS 8064 (N23W34) AND 8066 (N24E09) SEEN IN YOHKOH IMAGERY. PARTICLE ENHANCEMENTS OR RADIO SWEEP ACTIVITY WAS NOT OBSERVED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN ON AUGUST 2 DUE TO THE CME EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE.
III. Event Probabilities 31 JUL to 02 AUG
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 JUL 071
  Predicted   31 JUL-02 AUG  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        30 JUL 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUL  007/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUL  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JUL-02 AUG  005/008-005/008-015/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 JUL to 02 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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