Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 July 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jul 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JUL 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TODAY'S ACTIVITY CONSISTED
A OCCASIONAL B-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A B9/SF FROM
REGION 8062 (N27W65) AT 0333Z. REGION 8065 (N16W83) IS THE LARGEST
GROUP ON THE SUN BUT DID NOT PRODUCE ANY FLARE ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. BACKGROUND LEVELS SHOULD DECLINE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS
REGION 8065 ROTATES AROUND WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVE
PERIODS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THE INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS A RESPONSE TO
THE LONG DURATION EVENT OF 25 JULY (FOR DAY 2) AND DUE TO EFFECTS
FROM A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE (DAYS 2 AND 3).
III. Event Probabilities 28 JUL to 30 JUL
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 JUL 075 Predicted 28 JUL-30 JUL 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 27 JUL 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUL 008/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUL 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUL-30 JUL 015/015-020/035-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JUL to 30 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
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