Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCURRED IN THE
CURRENT DISK REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
A SMALL C-CLASS FLARE FROM DECAYING REGION 8040 (N06W53).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REMAINED QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO THE
CME OF 21 MAY FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR 25 MAY. THAT IS THE FINAL DAY
THE CME RELATED DISTURBANCE COULD IMPACT THE EARTH. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 26-27 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 MAY 077 Predicted 25 MAY-27 MAY 077/076/073 90 Day Mean 24 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY 015/020-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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