Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 May 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8038 (N20W58) REMAINS THE ONLY REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK. THIS REGION IS DECAYING SLOWLY AND HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WITHIN THE LAST DAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE MAY OCCUR IN REGION 8038.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIODS OCCURRED BETWEEN 15/0900-1500Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARTH-DIRECTED CME EVENT OBSERVED ON MAY 12.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED AS TODAY'S DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 MAY 073
  Predicted   16 MAY-18 MAY  072/070/070
  90 Day Mean        15 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY  038/055
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY  015/015-010/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/29M3.2
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X2.45
22014X1.45
32023X1.2
42024M3.2
52001M3.13
ApG
1199928G2
2200337G1
3201328G1
4200122G1
5199820G1
*since 1994

Social networks