Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8038 (N20W31) IS
THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION CURRENTLY ON THE DISK. THS REGION HAS GROWN
TO A C-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP BUT HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE PAST DAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8038.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET BECOMING ACTIVE TO STORM BY MAY 15 IN RESPONSE
TO YESTERDAY'S CME EVENT.
III. Event Probabilities 14 MAY to 16 MAY
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 MAY 074 Predicted 14 MAY-16 MAY 074/072/072 90 Day Mean 13 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAY 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAY 002/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAY-16 MAY 015/012-025/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 MAY to 16 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 40% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 40% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 30% | 05% |
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