Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. THE
TWO ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8038 (N21W06) AND
8039 (N23W65), REMAIN STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY
THREE DUE TO RECURRENT ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 MAY 072 Predicted 12 MAY-14 MAY 073/074/074 90 Day Mean 11 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY 005/010-010/008-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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