Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL REGION
EMERGED NEAR S26W30 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8037.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EXPERIENCED ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A
MODERATELY HIGH VELOCITY, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE EARTH'S
VICINITY. THIS STREAM IS ROOTED IN NEGATIVE FIELDS ON THE SUN
IMPLYING THAT THE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE IS THE LIKELY SOURCE.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AGAIN REACHED HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR 04-05 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 MAY 071 Predicted 04 MAY-06 MAY 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 03 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY 017/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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