Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 May 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR S26W30 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8037.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A MODERATELY HIGH VELOCITY, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY. THIS STREAM IS ROOTED IN NEGATIVE FIELDS ON THE SUN IMPLYING THAT THE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE IS THE LIKELY SOURCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AGAIN REACHED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR 04-05 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 MAY 071
  Predicted   04 MAY-06 MAY  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        03 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY  017/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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