Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW AS FOUR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE FIRST AN OPTICALLY CORRELATED
C3 FLARE AT 19/2223Z. THE LARGEST EVENT, A C4 FLARE, OCCURRED AT
20/1144Z. ALL EVENTS EMENATED FROM REGION 8018 (N05W89) WHILE IT
WAS A SINGLE SPOT 'AXX' GROUP. THE REGION HAS SINCE DECAYED INTO A
SPOTLESS PLAGE AS IT ROTATES OFF THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. AN 18-DEGREE LONG FILAMENT AT LOCATION S44W09 DISAPPEARED
FROM THE DISK DURING THE INTERVAL 20/0100-0406Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY
THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 21 FEB to 23 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 FEB 073 Predicted 21 FEB-23 FEB 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 20 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 FEB 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 FEB 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 FEB-23 FEB 005/005-010/010-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 FEB to 23 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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