Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8018 (N08W60),
A TWO SPOT 'BXO' ALPHA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS DUE TO A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. ACTIVITY ON DAY THREE IS EXPECTED TO
REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 19 FEB to 21 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 FEB 073 Predicted 19 FEB-21 FEB 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 18 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 FEB 014/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 FEB 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 FEB-21 FEB 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 FEB to 21 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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