Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE SOLAR DISK CONTINUES
TO BE SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEED HIGH FLUX LEVELS FOR
PART OF THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INCREASE TO MOSTLY
UNSETTLED IS EXPECTED ON THE SECOND DAY. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD RESUME ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 16 FEB to 18 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 FEB 072 Predicted 16 FEB-18 FEB 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 15 FEB 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 FEB 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 FEB 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 FEB-18 FEB 005/005-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 FEB to 18 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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