Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 February 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 FEB 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. THE DISK WAS SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. PERIODS OF ISOLATED MINOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH TO ALMOST VERY HIGH LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 12 FEB AS THIS MAGNETIC CLOULD RELATED DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 13-14 FEB.
III. Event Probabilities 12 FEB to 14 FEB
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 FEB 071
  Predicted    12 FEB-14 FEB  071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        11 FEB 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 FEB  021/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB  017/019
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB  010/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 FEB to 14 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm 15%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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