Viewing archive of Monday, 10 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. THE DISK BECAME
SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED
PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING OCCURRED AT MID LATITUDES AND SOME HIGH
LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED OCCASIONAL MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS. SOLAR
WIND DATA INDICATED A MAGNETIC CLOUD PASSED THE L1 POSITION NEAR
09/1230Z. THE BZ COMPONENT OF THE FIELD WAS OBSERVED ON 10 FEB TO SLOWLY CROSS
FROM 6 NT SOUTHWARD TO ZERO NEAR 10/1845Z IMPLYING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CLOUD WAS PASSING THE EARTH AROUND THAT TIME. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS NEAR 10/0945Z AND
ROSE QUICKLY TO VERY HIGH LEVELS AT ABOUT 10/1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 11 FEB. BRIEF
MINOR AND MAJOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME AS THE
MAGNETIC CLOULD COMPLETES ITS TRANSIT PAST THE EARTH. UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 12 FEB BECOMING MOSTLY QUIET BY 13
FEB.
III. Event Probabilities 11 FEB to 13 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 FEB 072 Predicted 11 FEB-13 FEB 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 10 FEB 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 FEB 017/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 FEB 018/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 FEB-13 FEB 015/027-010/020-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 FEB to 13 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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