Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8016 (S20W58), NOW
A SINGLE AXX SPOT, IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, THEN
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH
PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE, ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IN
RESPONSE TO THE LARGE CME EVENT OBSERVED ON 07 FEBRUARY. HIGH
LATITUDES SHOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING DURING
THAT PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 10 FEB to 12 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 FEB 073 Predicted 10 FEB-12 FEB 074/074/072 90 Day Mean 09 FEB 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 FEB 020/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 FEB 015/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 FEB-12 FEB 010/010-025/027-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 FEB to 12 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
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