Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT
FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS. MAJOR STORMING OCCURRED BETWEEN 08/1200 AND 08/1500Z.
SPACE BASED SOLAR WIND DATA INCDATE A HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM
AT THAT TIME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MID
LATITUDE ACTIVE LEVELS AND HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY THREE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO THE LARGE CME OBSERVED EARLY 7 FEBRUARY. HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS
MAY SEE OCCASSIONAL PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING DURING THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 09 FEB to 11 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 FEB 075 Predicted 09 FEB-11 FEB 076/076/074 90 Day Mean 08 FEB 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 FEB 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 FEB 014/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 FEB-11 FEB 010/012-010/010-025/027
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 FEB to 11 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 30% |
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