Viewing archive of Friday, 7 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT
FLARES OBSERVED. ALL SPOTTED REGIONS REMAINED STABLE AND QUIET.
H-ALPHA, YOHKOH X-RAY, AND SPACE-BASED CORONAGRAPH DATA INDICATE A
LARGE CME OCCURRED TODAY AT APPROXIMATELY 07/0230Z. THE CME SPANNED
THE SOLAR DISK FROM THE WEST LIMB NEAR N00W90, SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT CHANNEL, TO THE EAST LIMB NEAR
S40E90. THIS SUGGESTS A SPAN OF SOME 200 DEGREES. X-RAY DATA
INDICATE A SLIGHT LONG-DURATION ELEVATION IN SOLAR X-RAY OUTPUT
DURING THE EVENT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
ACTIVITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BY DAY FOUR IN RESPONSE TO THE OBSERVED
CME.
III. Event Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 FEB 076 Predicted 08 FEB-10 FEB 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 07 FEB 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB 009/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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