Viewing archive of Monday, 3 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8015 (N05W35) IS A
'DSO' BETA WITH 10 SPOTS AND 8016 (S21E09) IS A 'DSI' BETA WITH NINE
SPOTS. REGION 8015 HAD SEVERAL SUBFAINT FLARES EARLIER.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDLATITUDES AND
QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
HAVE BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 04 FEB to 06 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 FEB 080 Predicted 04 FEB-06 FEB 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 03 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 FEB 010/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 FEB 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 FEB-06 FEB 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 FEB to 06 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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