Viewing archive of Monday, 27 January 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JAN 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A B1 X-RAY EVENT AT 1425Z WAS THE ONLY FLARE ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY. REGION 8014 (S18E24) CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SMALL, STABLE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND MEASUREMENTS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IS DUE TO A HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY WIND STREAM, CONSISTENT WITH A CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED HIGH FLUX LEVELS AT 1725Z AND ARE CONTINUING TO RISE SLOWLY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 JAN to 30 JAN
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 JAN 074
  Predicted   28 JAN-30 JAN  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        27 JAN 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JAN  015/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JAN  011/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JAN-30 JAN  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JAN to 30 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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