Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 January 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JAN 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8014 (S12E32) IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE DISK AND WAS VERY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WHEN THE FIELD ATTAINED UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN INITIAL INTERVAL OF ENHANCED DENSITY, SOLAR WIND SPEED, AND ENHANCED MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH, FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASING SOLAR WIND SPEED AND DECREASING DENSITY. THERE WAS NO OBVIOUS SOLAR SOURCE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE PERSISTS. REGIONS NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT MAY EXPERIENCE INTERVALS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DUE TO SUBSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE FORECAST INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JAN to 29 JAN
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 JAN 074
  Predicted   27 JAN-29 JAN  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        26 JAN 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JAN  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JAN  012/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JAN-29 JAN  010/008-007/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JAN to 29 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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