Viewing archive of Friday, 15 November 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 NOV 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 7996 (N32E20), A FOUR SPOT 'BXO' GROUP, HAS GROWN
IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. REGION 7995 (N00E19), A TWO SPOT
'AXX' GROUP, HAD SEVERAL SMALL BRIGHTNINGS EARLIER.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 NOV 074 Predicted 16 NOV-18 NOV 074/073/072 90 Day Mean 15 NOV 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV 014/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV 018/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV 010/015-010/010-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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