Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO SPOTTED
REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE DISK. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM. THE
MOST DISTURBED PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 23/00-03Z. SOLAR WIND
INFORMATION FROM THE NASA WIND SPACECRAFT SUGGESTS THAT WE
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RECURRENT HIGH SPEED STREAM
RELATED TO AN EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE
STORM CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME.
III. Event Probabilities 24 OCT to 26 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 OCT 068 Predicted 24 OCT-26 OCT 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 23 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 OCT 025/028 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 OCT 030/041 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 OCT-26 OCT 020/030-020/015-015/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 OCT to 26 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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