Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 October 1996

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 OCT 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. SMALL NEW REGION 7990 EMERGED AT N15E27. THE EMERGENCE OF THIS REGION ENDS A 36 DAY PERIOD OF A SPOTLESS SUN. THE LAST SPOTLESS PERIOD OF THIS LENGTH WAS OBSERVED IN 1944.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE LATTER HALF. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW DECREASING VELOCITY HERALDING THE DEMISE OF THE CURRENT CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE PREDOMIANTLY HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 21 OCT. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW AND CONTINUE UNTIL 23 OCT WHEN ANOTHER CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORCAST FOR THAT DATE.
III. Event Probabilities 21 OCT to 23 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 OCT  071
  Predicted   21 OCT-23 OCT  071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        20 OCT  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 OCT  033/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT  015/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT  012/012-010/010-018/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 OCT to 23 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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