Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. SMALL NEW REGION
7990 EMERGED AT N15E27. THE EMERGENCE OF THIS REGION ENDS A 36
DAY PERIOD OF A SPOTLESS SUN. THE LAST SPOTLESS PERIOD OF THIS
LENGTH WAS OBSERVED IN 1944.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR
THE LATTER HALF. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW DECREASING
VELOCITY HERALDING THE DEMISE OF THE CURRENT CORONAL HOLE
RELATED DISTURBANCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE PREDOMIANTLY HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
21 OCT. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW AND
CONTINUE UNTIL 23 OCT WHEN ANOTHER CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE
FORCAST FOR THAT DATE.
III. Event Probabilities 21 OCT to 23 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 OCT 071 Predicted 21 OCT-23 OCT 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 20 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 OCT 033/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT 015/016 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT 012/012-010/010-018/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 OCT to 23 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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