Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 October 1996

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 OCT 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. HOWEVER, A LARGE FILAMENT LOCATED BETWEEN S28E61-S33E80 BEGAN TO DISAPPEAR NEAR 19/1600Z. THIS FILAMENT BECAME AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AS IT CONTINUED OUT BEYOND THE LIMB NEAR S28 TO A MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF 0.4R BEFORE FADING IN H-ALPHA. A LONG DURATION SOFT X-RAY ENHANCEMENT BEGAN NEAR 19/1625Z AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF A6 AT 19/1738Z. THE DECAY OF THIS X-RAY EVENT CONTINUES AT ISSUE TIME. IT IS CERTAIN THIS EVENT REPRESENTS A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION. A NEW SMALL REGION IS APPEARING AT APPROXIMATELY N15E90 IN RECENT YOHKOH IMAGES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED BETWEEN UNSETTLED AND MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD AS THE CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE CONTINUED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 20 OCT AND EARLY 21 OCT. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF 21 OCT AND THROUGH 22 OCT. THE PROBABLE CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH DUE TO ITS MODERATELY HIGH LATITUDE, NEAR EAST LIMB LOCATION, AND APPARENT TRAJECTORY OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC PLANE.
III. Event Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 OCT  071
  Predicted   20 OCT-22 OCT  071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        19 OCT  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 OCT  025/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  023/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  020/025-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm35%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm40%25%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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