Viewing archive of Friday, 18 October 1996

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 OCT 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

THE SUN REMAINED SPOTLESS AND ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES INCREASED AND DENSITIES DECREASED INDICATING THE BELATED ARRIVAL OF THE CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED ON 17 OCT. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES WERE MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH 20 OCT. QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 21 OCT AS THE CURRENT CORONAL HOLE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. ENERGETIC ELECTION FLUXES SHOULD RETURN TO HIGH LEVELS ON 19 OCT.
III. Event Probabilities 19 OCT to 21 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 OCT  070
  Predicted   19 OCT-21 OCT  070/071/071
  90 Day Mean        18 OCT  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 17 OCT  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 OCT  023/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 OCT-21 OCT  020/020-020/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 OCT to 21 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm35%35%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm40%40%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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