Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 September 1996

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 SEP 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY OF SIGNIFICANCE. THE DISK REMAINS SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOLAR WIND DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW DENSITY, HIGH SPEED STREAM. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES WERE AT HIGH LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 22 SEP to 24 SEP
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 SEP  070
  Predicted    22 SEP-24 SEP  070/072/072
  90 Day Mean        21 SEP  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 SEP  037/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 SEP  024/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 SEP-24 SEP  015/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 SEP to 24 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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