Viewing archive of Monday, 16 September 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 SEP 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW AS THE VISIBLE DISK REMAINS QUIET AND SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING OCCURRING DURING THE INTERVAL 16/0600-0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS CONTINUE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED INTERVALS OF MINOR STORMING, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 SEP  068
  Predicted   17 SEP-19 SEP  068/069/070
  90 Day Mean        16 SEP  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 SEP  015/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP  020/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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