Viewing archive of Monday, 26 August 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 AUG 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7986 (S12E43)
CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE AND NUMBER OF SUNSPOTS, AND PRODUCED
FOUR OPTICALLY CORRELATED B-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE REPORTING
PERIOD, THE LARGEST A B5/SF AT 26/1820Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED C0Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
EXCEEDED THE HIGH THRESHOLD AT 26/0835Z, DROPPEOXIMATELY 26/1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED
MINOR STORM INTERVALS ON DAY THREE DUE TO THE ROTATION OF A
LARGE, FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 27 AUG to 29 AUG
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 AUG 074 Predicted 27 AUG-29 AUG 077/078/078 90 Day Mean 26 AUG 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 AUG 018/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 AUG 015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 AUG-29 AUG 015/015-015/015-020/020
20/20/30
Minor storm 10% 10% 15% Major-severe storm 05% 05% 10% | B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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