Vorhersage Details

Ausgestellt: 2018 May 23 0030 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center und verarbeitet SpaceWeatherLive.com

Sonnenaktivität

24h Zusammenfassung
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2710 (N17E52, Bxo/beta) has been stable since rotating onto the disk. A long duration B2 flare, followed by a B8 flare, were observed at 22/0507 UTC and 22/1459 UTC, respectively. Both of these events occurred from an area of enhanced brightening beyond the E limb at about N13. This new region is expected to rotate onto the visible disk on or about 25 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Vorhersage
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity all three days (23-25 May). The chance for C-class activity is due to potential flare activity from an unnumbered region beyond the NE limb.

Energiereiche Teilchen

24h Zusammenfassung
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 954 pfu observed at 22/2025 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Vorhersage
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at expected to increase to moderate to high levels all three days (23-25 May) due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Sonnenwind

24h Zusammenfassung
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated a nominal solar wind environment through 22/1110 UTC. Wind speeds averaged about 300 km/s, total field ranged between 2-4 nT, the Bz component varied between +1 nT to -4 nT and phi remained in a mostly negative sector. After 22/1110 UTC, a weak CIR in advance of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS, was observed. Wind speeds indicated a slight uptick to about 325 km/s through about 22/1630 UTC and further increased to near 400 km/s through periods end. Total field ranged between 4-9 nT while Bz varied between +/-7 nT. A SSBC from a negative to positive orientation was observed at about 22/1640 UTC.
Vorhersage
Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced on day one (23 May) as a positive polarity extension off the northern crown CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Based on STEREO-A PLASTIC data, wind speeds are anticipated to increase to near 500 km/s through day two (24 May). By day three (25 May), wind parameters are expected to slowly weaken as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24h Zusammenfassung
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
Vorhersage
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active intervals, on days one and two (23-24 May) under positive polarity CH HSS influence. By day three (25 May), geomagnetic conditions are expected to taper off to predominately quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions early.
Derzeit gibt es, auf Basis der aktuellen Daten, keine Chancen das Polarlicht auf den mittleren Breiten zu sehen
Die Richtung des interplanetaren Magnetfeldes ist leicht südlich (-5,59nT).

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