Betrachte das Archiv von Mittwoch 07 März 2012

Solar-Aktivitätsbericht

Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2012 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.com

Gemeinsame Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität

SDF Nummer 067 ausgestellt am 07 Mar 2012 um 2200 Uhr UTC

IA. Die Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken Gruppen und Aktivität vom 06. 2100 Uhr auf 07. 2100 Uhr des Monats

Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo, though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at 0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300 millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex; multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the period but was relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the M-flare activity during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysikalische Zusammenfassung der Aktivitäten des 06. 2100Uhr bis 07. 2100Uhr
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at 07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of 69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and are clearly associated with todays X5/Full halo CME event.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from todays X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 08 Mar bis 10 Mar
M-Klasse85%85%85%
X-Klasse40%40%40%
Protonensturm99%80%50%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Beobachtet       07 Mar 136
  Vorhergesagt   08 Mar-10 Mar  140/140/135
  90 Tage Mittel        07 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
  Beobachtet Afr/Ap 06 Mar  010/009
  Geschätzt     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  036/050
  Vorhergesagt    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  047/075-018/028-007/015
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 08 Mar bis 10 Mar
A. Mittlere Breiten
Aktiv15%20%25%
Geringer Sturm40%40%15%
Schwerwiegender Sturm45%30%05%
B. Hohe Breiten
Aktiv05%25%15%
Geringer Sturm10%35%30%
Schwerwiegender Sturm85%25%45%

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