Betrachte das Archiv von Montag 27 Februar 2012

Solar-Aktivitätsbericht

Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2012 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.com

Gemeinsame Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität

SDF Nummer 058 ausgestellt am 27 Feb 2012 um 2200 Uhr UTC

IA. Die Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken Gruppen und Aktivität vom 26. 2100 Uhr auf 27. 2100 Uhr des Monats

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There was one C-class flare, a C2/Sf at 26/2141Z from the spotless plage Region 1421 (N14E62). Region 1423 (N18E15) is the largest group on the disk but is small and unimpressive. A filament eruption was observed over the north-east limb in the SDO AIA 304 imagery at about 27/1433Z and appears to be associated with a CME seen in LASCO imagery over the north pole. Another CME was noted in LASCO at 27/2012Z over the west limb but STEREO-A EUVI images clearly show that the solar source region behind the west limb. Neither of these CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is, however, a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysikalische Zusammenfassung der Aktivitäten des 26. 2100Uhr bis 27. 2100Uhr
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with an isolated period of major storm levels at high latitude. A weak shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 26/2058Z and was followed by a sudden impulse at Earth at 26/2141Z. Unsettled to active levels prevailed for the subsequent nine hours, followed by about nine hours of mostly quiet levels. However, solar wind data showed a sustained interval of moderately negative Bz from about 1000-1800Z and conditions increased to active levels from 1200-2100Z with a minor storm period during the last three hours of the interval. The timing and solar wind signatures suggest that disturbance is most likely due to passage of the CME that was initiated early on 24 February. The greater than 10 MeV protons continued to be elevated but were on the decline during the day with end-of-period values less than 1 PFU. Further analysis and comparison with ACE EPAM and ACE SIS show that these particles were likely also associated with the 24 February CME.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for the first day (28 February) as effects from the current disturbance persist. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the second and third days (29 February - 01 March).
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 28 Feb bis 01 Mar
M-Klasse01%01%01%
X-Klasse01%01%01%
Protonensturm01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Beobachtet       27 Feb 106
  Vorhergesagt   28 Feb-01 Mar  105/105/105
  90 Tage Mittel        27 Feb 128
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
  Beobachtet Afr/Ap 26 Feb  007/006
  Geschätzt     Afr/Ap 27 Feb  013/016
  Vorhergesagt    Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar  009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 28 Feb bis 01 Mar
A. Mittlere Breiten
Aktiv20%05%05%
Geringer Sturm05%01%01%
Schwerwiegender Sturm01%01%01%
B. Hohe Breiten
Aktiv15%15%15%
Geringer Sturm15%10%10%
Schwerwiegender Sturm05%05%05%

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