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Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2003 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.comGemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 171 ausgestellt am 20 Jun 2003 um 2200 Uhr UTC
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 19-2100Z Uhr bis 20-2100Z Uhr
Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
386 (S07E17) produced two low levels C-class flares today along with
several B-class flares. The northern portion of the penumbral field
appears to have undergone some rotation since yesterday while the
delta magnetic structure in the southern leading edge of group has
changed little during the period and remains intact. Region 387
(N18E36) was quiescent today although spot coverage and magnetic
complexity have both shown growth over the period. Region 389
(S12E14) was newly numbered today.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of
producing an isolated major event.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 19-2100Z Uhr bis 20-2100Z Uhr
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels today as
effects from the western most recurrent coronal hole wanes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
may exist especially at high latitudes beginning late on day two
with the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 21 Jun bis 23 Jun
Klasse M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Protonensturm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 20 Jun 117
Vorhergesagt 21 Jun-23 Jun 115/115/120
90 Tage Mittel 20 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
Beobachtet Afr/Ap 19 Jun 016/018
Geschätzt Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/015
Vorhergesagt Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 010/015-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 21 Jun bis 23 Jun
A. Mittlere Breiten |
Aktiv | 15% | 25% | 25% |
Geringer Sturm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hohe Breiten |
Aktiv | 30% | 30% | 40% |
Geringer Sturm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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PLAIN
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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