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Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2003 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.comGemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 169 ausgestellt am 18 Jun 2003 um 2200 Uhr UTC
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 17-2100Z Uhr bis 18-2100Z Uhr
Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region
386 (S07E43) produced an M6.8 x-ray flare (correlated using SXI
imagery) at 17/2255Z that had an associated Tenflare (2100 sfu),
Type IV and Type II radio sweeps (an estimated shock velocity of 1000
km/sec). This region showed growth in the magnetic structure
surrounding the dominant lead spot as a delta complex has become
evident since yesterday. The penumbral field coverage has changed
little over the period. Newly numbered Region 387 (N18E62) produced
several minor flares during the interval.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 386 has the potential to produce an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 17-2100Z Uhr bis 18-2100Z Uhr
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly minor to major storm
levels with an isolated period of severe storm conditions seen at
high latitudes between 18/0600 and 0900Z. A co-rotating integrated
region preceding a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream and is
believed to responsible for the storm conditions. The greater than
10 Mev proton flux at geosynchronous orbit reached event threshold
at 18/2050Z and due to the recent activity the exact source for this
particle event is not certain.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active to minor storm levels due to
a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Isolated major storm
conditions are possible on day one due to the potential for
transient activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should
remain above threshold level through the first day of the interval.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 19 Jun bis 21 Jun
Klasse M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Klasse X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Protonensturm | 99% | 50% | 25% |
PCAF | in progress
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 18 Jun 120
Vorhergesagt 19 Jun-21 Jun 120/120/120
90 Tage Mittel 18 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
Beobachtet Afr/Ap 17 Jun 030/050
Geschätzt Afr/Ap 18 Jun 035/050
Vorhergesagt Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 025/035-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 19 Jun bis 21 Jun
A. Mittlere Breiten |
Aktiv | 40% | 50% | 50% |
Geringer Sturm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hohe Breiten |
Aktiv | 40% | 50% | 50% |
Geringer Sturm | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
VII.
PLAIN
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) will become the primary satellite for protons. The transition from GOES 8 to GOES 11 was scheduled for 18 June, but has been delayed until 19 June. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be
found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
MAGNETOMETER
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
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