Archiv von Dienstag, 17 Juni 2003 anzeigen
Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.comGemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 168 ausgestellt am 17 Jun 2003 um 2200 Uhr UTC
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 16-2100Z Uhr bis 17-2100Z Uhr
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region
continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto
the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual
decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level
activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 16-2100Z Uhr bis 17-2100Z Uhr
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A
six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with
elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major
storm levels.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock
is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels
possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day
three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 18 Jun bis 20 Jun
Klasse M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Klasse X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Protonensturm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 17 Jun 122
Vorhergesagt 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/120/120
90 Tage Mittel 17 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
Beobachtet Afr/Ap 16 Jun 020/032
Geschätzt Afr/Ap 17 Jun 040/050
Vorhergesagt Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 18 Jun bis 20 Jun
A. Mittlere Breiten |
Aktiv | 35% | 40% | 40% |
Geringer Sturm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hohe Breiten |
Aktiv | 40% | 50% | 50% |
Geringer Sturm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
VII Comment:
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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