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Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.comGemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 095 ausgestellt am 05 Apr 2003 um 2200 Uhr UTC
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 04-2100Z Uhr bis 05-2100Z Uhr
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S11W62)
produced a number of C-class flares with the largest one a C6 at
05/0916Z. Region 324 has decreased in area coverage and spot count
but has retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity with a
weak delta configuration evident in the northeast intermediate
spots. A C4/1f flare occurred at 05/1509Z from a spotless plage
region near S16E75. Region 321 (N09W83) continues a gradual decline
as it approaches the west limb. New Region 331 (S07W09) was
numbered today.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated M-class activity. Regions 324
and 321 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 04-2100Z Uhr bis 05-2100Z Uhr
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm conditions. Solar wind was stable near 500
km/s until late in the period when it increased to over 550 km/s.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Elevated solar
wind speeds and oscillating Bz are expected to gradually decline
over the next few days. Late on day two or early on day three a
weak CME shock from the M1.9 flare on 04 April may result in
isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 06 Apr bis 08 Apr
Klasse M | 35% | 25% | 30% |
Klasse X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Protonensturm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 05 Apr 137
Vorhergesagt 06 Apr-08 Apr 135/130/120
90 Tage Mittel 05 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
Beobachtet Afr/Ap 04 Apr 013/026
Geschätzt Afr/Ap 05 Apr 020/025
Vorhergesagt Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 015/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 06 Apr bis 08 Apr
A. Mittlere Breiten |
Aktiv | 45% | 40% | 35% |
Geringer Sturm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
B. Hohe Breiten |
Aktiv | 45% | 40% | 35% |
Geringer Sturm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
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