Archiv von Donnerstag, 3 April 2003 anzeigen
Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2003 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.comGemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 093 ausgestellt am 03 Apr 2003 um 2200 Uhr UTC
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 02-2100Z Uhr bis 03-2100Z Uhr
Solar activity has been at low levels. A significant
C-class flare from Region 324 (S11W35) occurred at 1027 UTC. This
region has rapidly increased in both size and complexity over the
last 24 hours. New Regions 329 (N01E18) and 330 (N07E74) were
numbered today. No other significant activity occurred.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 324 (S11W35) and 321 (N08W54) are sufficiently
complex and should continue to be for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 02-2100Z Uhr bis 03-2100Z Uhr
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels. The high speed stream
which began on 30 March is subsiding, but continued instability in
the interplanetary magnetic field is maintaining our unsettled
activity levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active for the next two days due to the subsiding high speed stream.
By day three, the solar wind will increase again, and combined with
the potential for southward Bz, is likely to cause an increase to
unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 04 Apr bis 06 Apr
Klasse M | 45% | 45% | 35% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Protonensturm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 03 Apr 156
Vorhergesagt 04 Apr-06 Apr 155/155/150
90 Tage Mittel 03 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
Beobachtet Afr/Ap 02 Apr 011/020
Geschätzt Afr/Ap 03 Apr 015/013
Vorhergesagt Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 010/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 04 Apr bis 06 Apr
A. Mittlere Breiten |
Aktiv | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Geringer Sturm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hohe Breiten |
Aktiv | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Geringer Sturm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
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