Archiv von Mittwoch, 12 Juni 2002 anzeigen
Sonnenaktivitätsbericht
Für jede Sonneneruption in diesem Bericht wird ein Skalierungsfaktor vom Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) angewendet. Aufgrund dieses SWPC-Skalierungsfaktors werden Sonneneruptionen um 42 % kleiner gemeldet als die Daten für wissenschaftliche Zwecke. Der Skalierungsfaktor wurde aus unseren archivierten Sonneneruptionsdaten entfernt, um die tatsächlichen physikalischen Einheiten widerzuspiegeln.
Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2002 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.comGemeinsamer Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität
SDF Nummer 163 ausgestellt am 12 Jun 2002 um 2200 Uhr UTC
IA. Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken-Gruppen und der Aktivität vom 11-2100Z Uhr bis 12-2100Z Uhr
Solar activity was at low levels. Optically verified
using EIT imagery, Region 9987 (S15W56) produced a C1 x-ray flare at
12/0903 UTC. This region underwent slight decay today. Less
penumbral coverage seen in trailing cluster of spots, although
region continues to exhibit beta-gamma magnetic characteristics.
Region 9991 (S22E04) showed slight growth in penumbral coverage
during the period. Other than occasional point brightening and
minor dark surging, this region was stable through the period. A
Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 450 km/s
occurred at 12/0145 UTC. Source region of the sweep is believed to
have originated from beyond the northeast limb of the visible disk.
Regions 9996 (S27E46), 9997 (N08E73), and 9998 (N15E74) were
numbered today.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9987 remains capable of producing an isolated
low level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysikalische Aktivität vom 11-2100Z Uhr bis 12-2100Z Uhr
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Day three of
the forecast period may experience isolated active conditions in
response to a southern hemispheric high speed stream coronal hole
becoming favorably positioned.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 13 Jun bis 15 Jun
Klasse M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Klasse X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Protonensturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Beobachtet 12 Jun 142
Vorhergesagt 13 Jun-15 Jun 145/145/155
90 Tage Mittel 12 Jun 180
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
Beobachtet Afr/Ap 11 Jun 007/012
Geschätzt Afr/Ap 12 Jun 005/010
Vorhergesagt Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 005/008-006/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 13 Jun bis 15 Jun
A. Mittlere Breiten |
Aktiv | 10% | 10% | 20% |
Geringer Sturm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hohe Breiten |
Aktiv | 15% | 15% | 25% |
Geringer Sturm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Schwerwiegender Sturm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.
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